Energy
Since the 1999 return to civilian rule, every elected president has campaigned on fixing the power supply — and, before them, the military governments that built the dams and the national grid. On-grid generation has still never held above about 5,500 MW for a country of more than 200 million people.
The National Integrated Power Project, launched in 2005, committed an estimated $10-16 billion to new power plants and infrastructure, but delivered little corresponding increase in electricity actually reaching consumers by the end of the term — a failure later scrutinised by the National Assembly and inherited as an unresolved crisis by successive administrations.
No formal state of emergency was ever declared. Despite years of National Integrated Power Project spending inherited from the previous administration, generation capacity remained stuck at roughly 3,000MW for most of the term, and the pledge became one of the most widely mocked broken promises of the era.
Yar'Adua pledged to complete the power-sector privatisation begun under Obasanjo. Little visible progress was made on the transactions during the term; the process remained substantially incomplete at his death in 2010 and concluded only under the succeeding administration, in November 2013.
The handover of 15 of the 17 unbundled PHCN successor companies to private core investors was completed on 1 November 2013 — one of the signature structural reforms of the administration. However, the privatisation alone did not translate into materially improved supply, as the new owners inherited undercapitalised, poorly metered networks.
Despite completing the ownership handover, average power actually delivered to the national grid remained stuck in the 3,000-4,000MW range for most of the term against demand estimated above 12,000MW, held back by gas supply constraints, an ageing and undercapitalised transmission grid, and unresolved liquidity problems across the privatised value chain.
Installed generation capacity grew only marginally, and actual power delivered to the grid rarely exceeded 4,000–5,000MW throughout the two terms — far short of the 20,000MW target and of estimated national demand above 30,000MW. Multiple total grid collapses occurred every year, and metering gaps left millions of customers on estimated billing.
Electricity tariffs were increased in 2024. Power supply has not materially improved for most Nigerians. Aregbesola, a former ally, cited electricity failure as the clearest broken promise in April 2026.
Each entry is one rated promise — follow it to that administration’s full scorecard. Ratings use the four verdicts defined in the methodology.